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1.
NPJ Digit Med ; 7(1): 117, 2024 May 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38714751

RESUMO

Through technological innovations, patient cohorts can be examined from multiple views with high-dimensional, multiscale biomedical data to classify clinical phenotypes and predict outcomes. Here, we aim to present our approach for analyzing multimodal data using unsupervised and supervised sparse linear methods in a COVID-19 patient cohort. This prospective cohort study of 149 adult patients was conducted in a tertiary care academic center. First, we used sparse canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to identify and quantify relationships across different data modalities, including viral genome sequencing, imaging, clinical data, and laboratory results. Then, we used cooperative learning to predict the clinical outcome of COVID-19 patients: Intensive care unit admission. We show that serum biomarkers representing severe disease and acute phase response correlate with original and wavelet radiomics features in the LLL frequency channel (cor(Xu1, Zv1) = 0.596, p value < 0.001). Among radiomics features, histogram-based first-order features reporting the skewness, kurtosis, and uniformity have the lowest negative, whereas entropy-related features have the highest positive coefficients. Moreover, unsupervised analysis of clinical data and laboratory results gives insights into distinct clinical phenotypes. Leveraging the availability of global viral genome databases, we demonstrate that the Word2Vec natural language processing model can be used for viral genome encoding. It not only separates major SARS-CoV-2 variants but also allows the preservation of phylogenetic relationships among them. Our quadruple model using Word2Vec encoding achieves better prediction results in the supervised task. The model yields area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy values of 0.87 and 0.77, respectively. Our study illustrates that sparse CCA analysis and cooperative learning are powerful techniques for handling high-dimensional, multimodal data to investigate multivariate associations in unsupervised and supervised tasks.

2.
Res Sq ; 2023 Nov 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38045288

RESUMO

Through technological innovations, patient cohorts can be examined from multiple views with high-dimensional, multiscale biomedical data to classify clinical phenotypes and predict outcomes. Here, we aim to present our approach for analyzing multimodal data using unsupervised and supervised sparse linear methods in a COVID-19 patient cohort. This prospective cohort study of 149 adult patients was conducted in a tertiary care academic center. First, we used sparse canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to identify and quantify relationships across different data modalities, including viral genome sequencing, imaging, clinical data, and laboratory results. Then, we used cooperative learning to predict the clinical outcome of COVID-19 patients. We show that serum biomarkers representing severe disease and acute phase response correlate with original and wavelet radiomics features in the LLL frequency channel (corr(Xu1, Zv1) = 0.596, p-value < 0.001). Among radiomics features, histogram-based first-order features reporting the skewness, kurtosis, and uniformity have the lowest negative, whereas entropy-related features have the highest positive coefficients. Moreover, unsupervised analysis of clinical data and laboratory results gives insights into distinct clinical phenotypes. Leveraging the availability of global viral genome databases, we demonstrate that the Word2Vec natural language processing model can be used for viral genome encoding. It not only separates major SARS-CoV-2 variants but also allows the preservation of phylogenetic relationships among them. Our quadruple model using Word2Vec encoding achieves better prediction results in the supervised task. The model yields area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy values of 0.87 and 0.77, respectively. Our study illustrates that sparse CCA analysis and cooperative learning are powerful techniques for handling high-dimensional, multimodal data to investigate multivariate associations in unsupervised and supervised tasks.

3.
Heliyon ; 9(11): e21721, 2023 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37942162

RESUMO

Objectives: Galactomannan lateral flow assay (GM-LFA) is a reliable test for COVID-19 associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) diagnosis. We aimed to assess the diagnostic performance of GM-LFA with different case definitions, the association between the longitudinal measurements of serum GM-ELISA, GM-LFA, and the risk of death. Methods: Serum and nondirected bronchial lavage (NBL) samples were periodically collected. The sensitivity and specificity analysis for GM-LFA was done in different time periods. Longitudinal analysis was done with the joint model framework. Results: A total of 207 patients were evaluated. On the day of CAPA diagnosis, serum GM-LFA had a sensitivity of 42 % (95 % CI: 23-63) and specificity of 82 % (95 % CI: 78-84), while NBL GM-LFA had a sensitivity of 73 % (95 % CI: 45-92), specificity of 85 % (95 % CI: 76-91) for CAPA. Sensitivity decreased through the following days in both samples. Univariate joint model analysis showed that increasing GM-LFA and GM-ELISA levels were associated with increased mortality, and that effect remained same with serum GM-ELISA in multivariate joint model analysis. Conclusion: GM-LFA, particularly in NBL samples, seems to be a reliable method for CAPA diagnosis. For detecting patients with higher risk of mortality, longitudinal measurement of serum GM-ELISA can be useful.

4.
Ann Ital Chir ; 94: 336-345, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37794792

RESUMO

AIM: The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation of the pathological response in breast tissue and the axilla of patients with breast cancer who underwent surgery following neoadjuvant chemotherapy. METHOD: This retrospective cohort study included patients with T1-4, N1-3, M0 breast cancer who underwent surgery following neoadjuvant chemotherapy at Gaziosmanpasa Training and Research Hospital between 2013 and 2022. The response of the breast tissue to chemotherapy was evaluated with the Miller-Payne grading system, and the response of the axillary lymph nodes to chemotherapy was evaluated with the Pinder grading system. The patients were grouped histopathologically as luminal A, luminal B, Her-2 enriched, or triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). RESULTS: The study was completed with 140 patients. Pathological complete response (pCR) was seen in the breast in 40 patients and in the axilla in 34. Of the patients with pCR in the breast, pCR was also determined in the axilla in 45%. In the patients with pCR in both the breast and axilla, Her-2 enriched subtype, estrogen receptor negativity, progesterone receptor negativity, Her-2 neu positivity, and Ki-67 level >25% were determined to be effective (p<0.05). Her-2 neu positivity was evaluated as statistically significant in the development of pCR in both the breast and axilla (OR: 4.06, 95% CI:1.2-13.6, p=0.023). CONCLUSION: The development of pCR in the breast, especially in the Her-2 enriched subgroup, can be accepted as a predictive factor for the evaluation of axillary response in patients with breast cancer. The least compatibility was seen in the luminal A subgroup. KEY WORDS: Breast cancer, Miller-Payne, Neoadjuvant chemotherapy Pathological complete response, Pinder.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama , Humanos , Feminino , Neoplasias da Mama/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias da Mama/cirurgia , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Terapia Neoadjuvante , Axila/patologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Quimioterapia Adjuvante , Linfonodos/patologia , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapêutico
5.
Heliyon ; 8(12): e12341, 2022 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36531637

RESUMO

Background: COVID-19 case numbers have begun to rise with the recently reported Omicron variant. In the last two years, COVID-19 is the first diagnosis that comes to mind when a patient is admitted with respiratory symptoms and pulmonary ground-glass opacities. However, other causes should be kept in mind as well. Here we present a case of Legionnaires' disease misdiagnosed as COVID-19. Case presentation: A 48-year-old male was admitted with complaints of dry cough and dyspnea. Chest computed-tomography revealed bilateral ground-glass opacities; therefore, a preliminary diagnosis of COVID-19 was made. However, two consecutive COVID PCR tests were negative and the patient deteriorated rapidly. As severe rhabdomyolysis and acute renal failure were present, Legionnaires' disease was suspected. Urine antigen test for Legionella and Legionella pneumophila PCR turned out to be positive. The patient responded dramatically to intravenous levofloxacin and was discharged successfully. Discussion: Legionnaires' disease and COVID-19 may present with similar signs and symptoms. They also share common risk factors and radiological findings. Conclusions: Shared clinical and radiological features between COVID-19 and other causes of acute respiratory failure pose a challenge in diagnosis. Other causes such as Legionnaires' disease must be kept in mind and appropriate diagnostic tests should be performed accordingly.

6.
Eur J Intern Med ; 106: 1-8, 2022 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36272872

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In real-life settings, guidelines frequently cannot be followed since many patients are multimorbid and/or elderly or have other complicating conditions which carry an increased risk of drug-drug interactions. This document aimed to adapt recommendations from existing clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) to assist physicians' decision-making processes concerning specific and complex scenarios related to acute CAP. METHODS: The process for the adaptation procedure started with the identification of unsolved clinical questions (PICOs) in patients with CAP and continued with critically appraising the updated existing CPGs and choosing the recommendations, which are most applicable to these specific scenarios. RESULTS: Seventeen CPGs were appraised to address five PICOs. Twenty-seven recommendations were endorsed based on 7 high, 9 moderate, 10 low, and 1 very low-quality evidence. The most valid recommendations applicable to the clinical practice were the following ones: Respiratory virus testing is strongly recommended during periods of increased respiratory virus activity. Assessing the severity with a validated prediction rule to discriminate where to treat the patient is strongly recommended along with reassessing the patient periodically for improvement as expected. In adults with multiple comorbidities, polypharmacy, or advanced age, it is strongly recommended to check for possible drug interactions before starting treatment. Strong graded recommendations exist on antibiotic treatment and its duration. Recommendations on the use of biomarkers such as C-reactive protein or procalcitonin to improve severity assessment are reported. CONCLUSION: This document provides a simple and reliable updated guide for clinical decision-making in the management of complex patients with multimorbidity and CAP in the real-life setting.


Assuntos
Infecções Comunitárias Adquiridas , Médicos , Pneumonia , Adulto , Humanos , Idoso , Infecções Comunitárias Adquiridas/diagnóstico , Infecções Comunitárias Adquiridas/tratamento farmacológico , Pneumonia/diagnóstico , Pneumonia/tratamento farmacológico , Multimorbidade , Polimedicação
7.
Mycoses ; 65(7): 724-732, 2022 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35531631

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) has been reported as an important cause of mortality in critically ill patients with an incidence rate ranging from 5% to 35% during the first and second pandemic waves. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the incidence, risk factors for CAPA by a screening protocol and outcome in the critically ill patients during the third wave of the pandemic. PATIENTS/METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted in two intensive care units (ICU) designated for patients with COVID-19 in a tertiary care university hospital between 18 November 2020 and 24 April 2021. SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive adult patients admitted to the ICU with respiratory failure were included in the study. Serum and respiratory samples were collected periodically from ICU admission up to CAPA diagnosis, patient discharge or death. ECMM/ISHAM consensus criteria were used to diagnose and classify CAPA cases. RESULTS: A total of 302 patients were admitted to the two ICUs during the study period, and 213 were included in the study. CAPA was diagnosed in 43 (20.1%) patients (12.2% probable, 7.9% possible). In regression analysis, male sex, higher SOFA scores at ICU admission, invasive mechanical ventilation and longer ICU stay were significantly associated with CAPA development. Overall ICU mortality rate was higher significantly in CAPA group compared to those with no CAPA (67.4% vs 29.4%, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: One fifth of critically ill patients in COVID-19 ICUs developed CAPA, and this was associated with a high mortality.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Aspergilose Pulmonar Invasiva , Aspergilose Pulmonar , Adulto , COVID-19/complicações , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Estado Terminal , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Aspergilose Pulmonar Invasiva/complicações , Aspergilose Pulmonar Invasiva/diagnóstico , Aspergilose Pulmonar Invasiva/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pandemias , Estudos Prospectivos , Aspergilose Pulmonar/complicações , SARS-CoV-2
8.
Turk J Med Sci ; 52(1): 1-10, 2022 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34493032

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: We aimed to analyze the usefulness of such a reserved area for the admission of the patients' symptoms suggesting COVID-19 and compare the demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients with COVID-19 and without COVID-19 who were admitted to C1 during the first month of the COVID-19 outbreak in our hospital. METHODS: A new area was set up in Hacettepe University Adult Hospital to limit the contact of COVID-19 suspicious patients with other patients, which was named as COVID-19 First Evaluation Outpatient Clinic (C1). C1 had eight isolation rooms and two sampling rooms for SARS-CoV-2 polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR). All rooms were negative-pressurized. Patients who had symptoms that were compatible with COVID-19 were referred to C1 from pretriage areas. All staff received training for the appropriate use of personal protective equipment and were visited daily by the Infection Prevention and Control team. RESULTS: One hundred and ninety-eight (29.4%) of 673 patients who were admitted to C1were diagnosed with COVID-19 between March 20, 2020, and April 19, 2020. SARS-CoV-2 PCR was positive in 142 out of 673 patients. Chest computerized tomography (CT) was performed in 421 patients and COVID-19 was diagnosed in 56 of them based on CT findings despite negative PCR. Four hundred and ninety-three patients were tested for other viral and bacterial infections with multiplex real-time reverse-transcriptase PCR (RTPCR). Blood tests that included complete blood count, renal and liver functions, d-dimer levels, ferritin, C- reactive protein, and procalcitonin were performed in 593 patients. Only one out of 44 healthcare workers who worked at C1 was infected by SARS-CoV-2. DISCUSSION: Early diagnosis of infected patients and ensuring adequate isolation are very important to control the spread of COVID-19. The purpose of setting up the COVID-19 first evaluation outpatient clinic was to prevent the overcrowding of ER due to mild or moderate infections, ensure appropriate distancing and isolation, and enable emergency services to serve for real emergencies. A wellplanned outpatient care area and teamwork including internal medicine, microbiology, and radiology specialists under the supervision of infectious diseases specialists allowed adequate management of the mild-to-moderate patients with suspicion of COVID-19.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Adulto , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , SARS-CoV-2 , Turquia/epidemiologia , Hospitais Universitários , Instituições de Assistência Ambulatorial
9.
J Gastrointest Cancer ; 53(1): 22-30, 2022 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34472012

RESUMO

BACKGROUND/AIM: While the treatment for early stage rectal cancer is surgery, when a diagnosis is made at a locally advanced stage, it is recommended to start treatment with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Therefore, it is important to determine which patients will respond best to neoadjuvant treatment. The aim of this study was to investigate which hematological, histopathological, and radiological parameters can predict the response to chemoradiotherapy. METHODS AND MATERIAL: A retrospective examination was made of 43 patients who underwent surgery following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy because of locally advanced stage rectal cancer. Demographic data were collected from the patient files, and the radiological, histopathological, and laboratory findings before neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy were compared with the findings after treatment. RESULTS: In the postoperative evaluation, a pathological complete response was determined in 25.50% of the patients. Lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, and absence of necrosisis were seen to be statistically related to major response (p < 0.05), and in patients where the tumor was closer than 6 cm to the anal verge, the response was better CONCLUSION: When the findings were examined, histopathological lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, the presence of necrosis, and the anal verge distance were evaluated as parameters predicting the response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer.


Assuntos
Terapia Neoadjuvante , Neoplasias Retais , Quimiorradioterapia , Demografia , Humanos , Neoplasias Retais/diagnóstico por imagem , Neoplasias Retais/patologia , Neoplasias Retais/terapia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Resultado do Tratamento
10.
Infection ; 50(2): 359-370, 2022 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34279815

RESUMO

PURPOSE: While more advanced COVID-19 necessitates medical interventions and hospitalization, patients with mild COVID-19 do not require this. Identifying patients at risk of progressing to advanced COVID-19 might guide treatment decisions, particularly for better prioritizing patients in need for hospitalization. METHODS: We developed a machine learning-based predictor for deriving a clinical score identifying patients with asymptomatic/mild COVID-19 at risk of progressing to advanced COVID-19. Clinical data from SARS-CoV-2 positive patients from the multicenter Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients (LEOSS) were used for discovery (2020-03-16 to 2020-07-14) and validation (data from 2020-07-15 to 2021-02-16). RESULTS: The LEOSS dataset contains 473 baseline patient parameters measured at the first patient contact. After training the predictor model on a training dataset comprising 1233 patients, 20 of the 473 parameters were selected for the predictor model. From the predictor model, we delineated a composite predictive score (SACOV-19, Score for the prediction of an Advanced stage of COVID-19) with eleven variables. In the validation cohort (n = 2264 patients), we observed good prediction performance with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.73 ± 0.01. Besides temperature, age, body mass index and smoking habit, variables indicating pulmonary involvement (respiration rate, oxygen saturation, dyspnea), inflammation (CRP, LDH, lymphocyte counts), and acute kidney injury at diagnosis were identified. For better interpretability, the predictor was translated into a web interface. CONCLUSION: We present a machine learning-based predictor model and a clinical score for identifying patients at risk of developing advanced COVID-19.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Escore de Alerta Precoce , Área Sob a Curva , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Humanos , Aprendizado de Máquina , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2
12.
Ann Ital Chir ; 92: 234-241, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34193647

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic granulomatous mastitis that has not had a clear consensus about its treatment since the day it was identified as a rare, benign inflammatory breast disease that mimics malignancy due to its appearance features. AIMS: In our research, we intended to compare the efficiency of intralesional and systemic steroids administration in the treatment of idiopathic granulomatous mastitis. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective randomized controlled study. METHODS: A total of 36 female patients who had been histopathologically diagnosed with idiopathic granulomatous mastitis and whose other factors had been microbiologically excluded were included in the study. The patients were randomized into two sub-groups that would be treated with systemic and intralesional steroids. All patients were evaluated through physical examination one week after the completion of the treatment. Subsequently, the follow-up of the patients was performed thorough physical examination and ultrasonography and/or magnetic resonance imaging at the 1st, 3rd, and 6th months. RESULTS: All patients adapted to treatment. Complete clinical regression occurred in 32 patients, while 30 of 36 patients responded to treatment both radiologically and clinically. A total of 4 patients had minor side effects. It was determined that there was no statistically significant difference between local and systemic steroid groups in terms of complete clinical regression, responded to treatment side effects, and recurrence rates. CONCLUSION: Intralesional steroid administration was also considered just as a successful treatment method as the systemic steroid administration. KEY WORDS: Idiopathic granulomatous mastitis, Intralesional steroid, Systemic steroid.


Assuntos
Glucocorticoides/administração & dosagem , Mastite Granulomatosa , Metilprednisolona/administração & dosagem , Triancinolona/administração & dosagem , Administração Oral , Adulto , Antibacterianos/administração & dosagem , Feminino , Mastite Granulomatosa/diagnóstico , Mastite Granulomatosa/diagnóstico por imagem , Mastite Granulomatosa/tratamento farmacológico , Humanos , Injeções Intralesionais , Imageamento por Ressonância Magnética , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Resultado do Tratamento , Ultrassonografia Mamária
14.
Sisli Etfal Hastan Tip Bul ; 55(1): 23-32, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33935532

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Gastric cancer is the fifth most common cancer and the third most common cause of cancer-related deaths in the world. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the impact of clinicopathological factors on overall survival in the patients who underwent curative-intent gastrectomy due to gastric adenocarcinoma. METHODS: The medical records of 644 patients who underwent gastrectomy between January 2007 and January 2017 in our clinic were retrospectively reviewed. Among these patients, 359 patients were included in this study. The impact of several prognostic factors on survival was investigated. RESULTS: The mean age was 59.2±11.6 (29-83). Male/female ratio was 2.12. The median follow-up time was 19 months (CI=10.1-31.1). Median overall survival was 23±2.3 months (CI=18.3-27.6). Splenectomy, R1 (microscopically incomplete) resection, and advanced stage were independent risk factors for poor prognosis. CONCLUSION: R1 resection, splenectomy, and advanced TNM stage were associated with poor prognosis in gastric cancer. Splenectomy should be avoided in the absence of direct invasion of the tumour or metastasis of lymph nodes on splenic hilum to prevent postoperative infectious complication-related mortality.

16.
Diagn Cytopathol ; 49(6): 671-676, 2021 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33560593

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of preoperative fine-needle aspiration biopsies (FNAB) by the postthyroidectomy pathology results. METHOD: Seven hundred and ninety-five patients with FNAB and following thyroid operations which have been performed between April 2008 and December 2019 were included in this study. By comparing the results of the FNAB and final pathologies, the specificity, sensitivity, FNR, false positivity ratio (FPR), accuracy and also the effect of nodule diameter on these have been evaluated. In Bethesda III subgroup according to FNAB, we investigated the malignancy rates and in whom this risk has been increased more. RESULTS: In our study, the sensitivity of FNAB is 73.40%, the specificity is 95.33%, the accuracy is 91.81%, FNR is 26.60% and FPR is 4.67%. In the patients with nodules ≥4 cm and < 4 cm respectively, we calculated the sensitivity 20.0% vs 79.76%, specificity 95.73% vs 95.19%, accuracy 89.82% vs 92.78%, FNR 80.0% vs 20.24%, FPR 4.27% vs 4.8%. CONCLUSION: Thyroid FNAB is an easy procedure with a high specificity and sensitivity. Nevertheless, when the nodule diameter was ≥4 cm, increased FNR and decreased sensitivity should be kept in mind while evaluating the patients.


Assuntos
Biópsia por Agulha Fina , Nódulo da Glândula Tireoide/diagnóstico , Nódulo da Glândula Tireoide/patologia , Tireoidectomia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Adulto Jovem
17.
Turk J Surg ; 37(3): 303-306, 2021 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35112067

RESUMO

Neoplasms of the appendix are very rare. They usually show glandular or neuroendocrine differentiation, and when they both occur in the same area, it is called a "collision tumor." Low-grade mucinous neoplasms associated with appendiceal diverticula are also uncommon. The appendectomy specimen of a 60-year-old man contained dense and mucoid luminal content on the distal tip, and similarly a solid, yellow, lumen-obscuring tumor with a diameter of 1.5 cm at the base of the appendix was detected. Microscopically, there were three diverticula that comprised herniation of the mucosal layer through the appendiceal wall. Interestingly, all of the diverticula and the normal-appearing appendiceal wall were lined by adenomatous epithelium. The luminal portion had pools of mucin-containing, rare clusters of low-grade epithelium that gave rise to the diagnosis of a "low-grade mucinous neoplasm." The solid-appearing tumor was diagnosed as a "neuroendocrine neoplasm," and there was no transition zone between these two types of tumors. There are some cases that have been reported as low-grade mucinous neoplasms associated with appendicular diverticula and collision tumors consisting both mucinous neoplasms and carcinoid tumors in the literature; our case has a unique appearance with two different types of tumors both in the appendix wall and within multiple diverticula.

18.
Turk J Med Sci ; 51(1): 16-27, 2021 02 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32530587

RESUMO

Background/aim: The COVID-19 pandemic originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and became one of the worst global health crises ever. While struggling with the unknown nature of this novel coronavirus, many researchers and groups attempted to project the progress of the pandemic using empirical or mechanistic models, each one having its drawbacks. The first confirmed cases were announced early in March, and since then, serious containment measures have taken place in Turkey. Materials and methods: Here, we present a different approach, a Bayesian negative binomial multilevel model with mixed effects, for the projection of the COVID-19 pandemic and we apply this model to the Turkish case. The model source code is available at https:// github.com/kansil/covid-19. We predicted the confirmed daily cases and cumulative numbers from June 6th to June 26th with 80%, 95%, and 99% prediction intervals (PI). Results: Our projections showed that if we continued to comply with the measures and no drastic changes were seen in diagnosis or management protocols, the epidemic curve would tend to decrease in this time interval. Also, the predictive validity analysis suggests that the proposed model projections should have a PI around 95% for the first 12 days of the projections. Conclusion: We expect that drastic changes in the course of COVID-19 in Turkey will cause the model to suffer in predictive validity, and this can be used to monitor the epidemic. We hope that the discussion on these projections and the limitations of the epidemiological forecasting will be beneficial to the medical community, and policy makers.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , Métodos Epidemiológicos , Previsões , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Probabilidade , Turquia/epidemiologia
19.
J Med Virol ; 93(5): 2828-2837, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33225509

RESUMO

The disease course of children with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) seems milder as compared with adults, however, actual reason of the pathogenesis still remains unclear. There is a growing interest on possible relationship between pathogenicity or disease severity and biomarkers including cytokines or chemokines. We wondered whether these biomarkers could be used for the prediction of the prognosis of COVID-19 and improving our understanding on the variations between pediatric and adult cases with COVID-19. The acute phase serum levels of 25 cytokines and chemokines in the serum samples from 60 COVID-19 pediatric (n = 30) and adult cases (n = 30) including 20 severe or critically ill, 25 moderate and 15 mild patients and 30 healthy pediatric (n = 15) and adult (n = 15) volunteers were measured using commercially available fluorescent bead immunoassay and analyzed in combination with clinical data. Interferon gamma-induced protein 10 (IP-10) and macrophage inflammatory protein (MIP)-3ß levels were significantly higher in patient cohort including pediatric and adult cases with COVID-19 when compared with all healthy volunteers (p ≤ .001 in each) and whereas IP-10 levels were significantly higher in both pediatric and adult cases with severe disease course, MIP-3ß were significantly lower in healthy controls. Additionally, IP-10 is an independent predictor for disease severity, particularly in children and interleukin-6 seems a relatively good predictor for disease severity in adults. IP-10 and MIP-3ß seem good research candidates to understand severity of COVID-19 in both pediatric and adult population and to investigate possible pathophysiological mechanism of COVID-19.


Assuntos
Biomarcadores/sangue , COVID-19/terapia , Quimiocinas/sangue , Citocinas/sangue , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Adolescente , Idoso , Quimiocina CCL19/sangue , Quimiocina CXCL10/sangue , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Progressão da Doença , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , SARS-CoV-2
20.
Int J Colorectal Dis ; 35(5): 947-958, 2020 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32100112

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Inflammatory myofibroblastic tumour (IMT), which is also named as plasma cell granuloma (PCG) or inflammatory pseudotumour (IPT), is a rare tumour which rarely develops in the colorectal region. We aimed to review all reported cases to draw attention about this rare tumour. METHODS: We present two new cases of colonic IMT with no recurrence during the follow-up period. We also reviewed previously reported colorectal IMT/IPT/PCG patients to investigate demographics, diagnosis and treatment modalities. RESULTS: A total of 60 patients which including our 2 patients and 58 patients from 42 published articles were analysed. Male/female ratio was 34/26. Mean age was found to be 31.84 ± 22.26 years (9 months-82 years). Abdominal pain (56.7%) and fever (23.3%) were the most common complaints in the first admission. Fifty-nine (98.3%) out of 60 patients underwent surgery. During follow-up, 7 (14.3%) patients developed a local recurrence. CONCLUSION: IMT may occur at any age. IMT is considered to be a borderline tumour with the potential for recurrence or distant metastasis. Complete resection of the tumour is recommended for treatment. Long-time follow-up is necessary due to recurrence potential of the tumour even many years after complete surgical resection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study follows the regulation of the Institutional Review Board for human research at Izmir Katip Celebi University Ataturk Training and Research Hospital. Written informed consents were obtained from the patients who participated in this study.


Assuntos
Neoplasias do Colo/patologia , Inflamação/patologia , Miofibroblastos/patologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Neoplasias do Colo/diagnóstico , Neoplasias do Colo/diagnóstico por imagem , Neoplasias do Colo/cirurgia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X , Adulto Jovem
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